Economic conditions -- and perceptions -- are critical for Biden in Michigan

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said it would be foolish for Democrats to view the presidential race with an air of overconfidence or presumed victory, despite persistent signs of economic growth under President Joe Biden and another criminal indictment facing his leading Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump.

"No, I don't believe that for a second, and I don't think the president believes that either," Whitmer told CNN in an interview here this week. "I don't think anyone should take this upcoming election for granted, regardless of what the matchup is."

For all the uncertainties confronting Biden in his quest to win reelection, the economy remains one of the most stubborn challenges. The nation's economic conditions are consistently stronger than the economic perceptions of Americans, a disconnect the governor said should not be discounted.

"I feel good, but everything feels very precarious," Whitmer said, when asked about the economy in her state. "I use the word precarious because we've been through a lot these last few years."

She added: "People are somewhat optimistic, but worried that perhaps there's a curveball coming."

The White House is seeking to build on that optimism and the strength of its domestic agenda, pointing to the monthly Labor Department report on Friday that showed hourly wages had climbed from a year ago and the US unemployment rate had fallen to 3.5% in July.

Even as inflation recedes, a majority of Americans harbor negative views about the economy. A new CNN poll out this week found that 51% said they think the economy is still in a downturn and getting worse. The president's overall approval stands at 41% in the new poll and drops to 37% on his handling of the economy.

"There's a lot more communication that has to be done between now and next year's election, without question. It's on all of us," said Whitmer, who is among the co-chairs of Biden's reelection campaign. "We would all benefit if we spent a little more time telling some of the great victories that we've seen in the last few years."

Whether the disconnect over the economy is a challenge of communications or a broader one remains an open question, but Biden advisers believe that getting people to see and feel signs of economic progress in their own lives is a gradual process that will play out over the next year.

For Biden, winning a second term depends, in part, upon the resilience of his blue wall in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. While Trump carried the three states in 2016, Biden won them in 2020 and all will be critical battlegrounds once again in 2024.

As Paul and Nancy Newman waited to catch a ride on the Emerald Isle ferry in the northern Michigan town of Charlevoix one morning this week, they said they do not believe Biden is being graded on his actual accomplishments. Road construction is everywhere, they said, as well as many other projects from Biden's landmark infrastructure law.

"He doesn't get credit for it," said Paul Newman, a retiree who lives in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. "Democrats have never done a good job selling themselves, that's one problem. They need to get out there like Trump and everybody did and just start talking about all the things that are going on."

Take the ferry, for example. It connects Michigan to Beaver Island on Lake Michigan and will soon be replaced by a new ship through an investment of state and federal money, including $6 million in funding from the infrastructure law.

Newman, a former Republican who now considers himself an independent voter, said he believes the deep partisan divisions have little to do with the economic conditions. Asked to explain the disconnect, he said: "I think we're a spoiled country. People have had too much and they don't have context of what's been before them."

As Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and members of their cabinet fan out across the country this month to sell the administration's economic achievements, it's clear there is considerable explaining to do when it comes to "Bidenomics," a term the White House repeatedly touts.

As he walked down Bridge Street earlier this week in downtown Charlevoix, Fritz Benson laughed when asked if he could explain Bidenomics.

"No. I have absolutely no idea what it means," Benson said. "But I think it's Biden trying to put together some positive things for the economy. He has stepped across party lines to get a few things done and I think that's part of it."

Benson, a retiree from East Lansing, declined to say whether he voted for Biden, but said he believes the administration has built a credible list of accomplishments, despite the deep divisions in Washington. He, too, believes the president needs to do a better job making his case.

"Inflation is coming down, the stock market is up and the economy seems to be in a pretty good spot," Benson said. "The Biden administration needs to get their message out a little bit better because they have passed some good things - the debt ceiling and so forth - that could have really hurt the country."

Inside the Clothing Company in Charlevoix, a resort community in conservative-leaning Charlevoix County, owner Annie Oosthuizen said she preferred to steer clear of partisan politics. But she said she feels a brighter mood this summer in the aftermath of the pandemic.

"What we all went through in 2020, we're kind of still in that doom and gloom mindset, but I do feel like things are improving, definitely," Oosthuizen said. "We kind of got out of the darkness and now we're going towards the light, hopefully."

While inflation has cooled, soaring interest rates and high costs from groceries to housing still contribute to a mixed economic climate, said Republican state Sen. John Damoose, who represents a broad swath of northern Michigan.

"I'm waiting for prices to go back to normal and they're not - this is the new normal," Damoose said in an interview. "I think people are still suffering."

But in addition to frustrations with the economy, he said, there is a broader feeling of exhaustion among the American people at the state of politics on both sides.

"I think people are scratching their heads and just want to be left alone," he said. "Get back to a period of normalcy for a while, but I don't know if that's coming any time soon, especially with 2024 looming."

The president carried Michigan by nearly 3 percentage points and has visited the state several times since he took office, touting the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and more.

Two summers ago, Biden stopped at King Orchards, where owner John King has endured high labor costs, supply chain challenges and inflation - all of which have made him worry about the future of his family business.

He said his Republican neighbors blame Biden. He does not, but worries that deep divisions and partisan acrimony will only get worse, given the criminal charges facing Trump and the ensuing political fallout.

"I'm not disappointed in the president. I'm not," King said, standing beneath an apricot tree filled with fruit. "I just feel, I just think there's so much to overcome."